Wellbeing public policy needs more theory

Abstract

Advocacy for ‘wellbeing public policy’ (WPP) requires suitable evidence. Endorsing the ambition to focus policy on wellbeing outcomes, we nevertheless argue that the current evidence base is deficient due to a lack of theory. For the purposes of our analysis, we identify theory narrowly with conceptual clarity and the modelling of causal mechanisms underlying statistical regularities. The prevailing focus on identifying ‘drivers’ of wellbeing and their effect sizes is not well suited for such theorising. We show that this status quo creates potential for conceptual confusion, incorrect aggregation, poor robustness and external validity of policy evaluations, inept interventions, and raises the prospect of a ‘Lucas critique’ in wellbeing economics. We discuss what sort of theory addresses these pitfalls, and where WPP could proceed fruitfully even in the absence of such theory. Ultimately, we call upon wellbeing experts to invest in developing theory as this would improve the basis for WPP and outcomes for those affected by it. Moreover, such theoretical contributions from the field of WPP could spillover to other disciplines, extending the reach and influence of wellbeing research.